AAOM Handbook

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3.5.2 Model Output Annual Using the @Risk function ‘RiskOuput’ annualised outputs can be calculated and plotted on a histogram. Outputs of the calibrated base-case can be used to assess system constraint at the Level 4 Business Structure and confidence level to meet Business Expectations. The process histogram that is furthest to the left on the overlaying histogram graph is identified as the constraint. In Figure 32 and 33 below, the constraining process is identified as the Mine process. This will require strategies/opportunities that deal first with excessive variation i.e. unplanned zero days and days below LCL to meet Business Expectations to the required confidence level. Then address capability last as this may require additional capital. The shape of the distribution needs to be assessed to determine position on the performance effort curve. There will always be a constraint in the value stream. This needs to be the most expensive process.

Values x 10^-5

400,000

420,000

440,000

460,000

480,000

500,000

520,000

Figure 32 – Constraints analysis on the calibrated base case scenario

Operational Planning: Building a Business Structure Performance Model Page 28 of 39