AAOM Handbook

Purpose

To estimate the performance losses that will be created by the implementation of the Service Strategies proposed for a Process.

Quantity

• One estimate for the characteristics defining the distribution of probable losses arising from the implementation of a set of Service Strategies.

Quality

Projections for performance losses shall include each of the following parameters: • The downtime duration required to implement the strategy, • Reductions in process operating rate before, during or after the execution of work required by the strategy. • The number of Service Strategy events that will restrict process operating rate. • Production of non-prime output before, during or after the execution of work required by the strategy. • The number of Service Strategy events that will affect output quality.

Where no change in the Service Strategy is forecast to occur, the projected losses should be unchanged from the historical losses.

Where a change in the Service Strategy is forecast to occur, the specification of performance losses shall include:

• The performance losses forecast prior to the strategy change. • The forecast date for implementation of the strategy change. • The performance losses forecast after to the strategy change.

Changes to the performance losses projected for a change in Service Strategy shall be estimated from the expected changes to; • the downtime duration required to implement the strategy, • reductions in process operating rate before, during or after the execution of work required by the strategy. • the number of Service Strategy events that will restrict process operating rate. • production of non-prime output before, during or after the execution of work required by the strategy. • the number of Service Strategy events that will affect output quality, produced by the change in strategy. The probability distribution for the performance loss parameter shall be defined in the form of a PERT value function with four parameters; the best case value, most likely case value, worst case value and the weighting factor.

A database shall be used to record the performance loss projections.

© McAlear Management Consultants 2006

Operational Planning: Set Service Strategy

Updated: August 2018

Page 59