AAOM Handbook

[OFFICIAL]

INTERNAL USE ONLY

BSP model inputs for all the processes and scenarios must be recorded on a tab, where the accountable roleholder can make changes according to scenarios being tested as illustrated in Figure 3 to 5 below. Input parameter will be referenced into the Business Structure Model tab where 365 days (shorter or longer can be used depending on the scenarios) of random values will be generated for the base-case calibration period - this is only for base-case calibration purpose considering all scenarios in an annual cycle, where there are changes of scenarios in a year these need to be indicated e.g. winter and summer or high and low output demand etc. Future parameters to meet Business Expectations over a 5-year period must also be recorded as illustrated in Figure 6. Future inputs will also include a combination of future threats, seeking to first reduce variation before dealing with capacity i.e. shifting the mean. The selected scenario will then inform both Production and Service strategies and form the basis of the OMS activities over a 5-year period. Both @Risk and DOP have several continuous distributions to consider a best fitting distribution to the appropriate shape including the commonly used Pert distribution, either a 3 parameter or a 4 parameter PERT.

DESIGN

Calibration data year / 2021

Min ML Max Min ML Max Min ML Max Min ML Max Min ML Max Min ML Max Min ML Max

18,035 FGO tonnes/day FGO tonnes/day FGO tonnes/day 32,494 64,589 140,000 Waste tonnes/day Waste tonnes/day Waste tonnes/day 211,796 240,000

Total Design FGO tonnes/day (RiskPert)

Total Design Waste tonnes/day (Riskpert)

0 VLGO tonnes/day VLGO tonnes/day VLGO tonnes/day

4,705 7,245

Total Design VLGO tonnes/day (RiskPert)

Figure 3 – Example of inputs for a continuous Transform/Transfer distribution

MINE

Calibration data year / 2021

175,740 total tonnes/day total tonnes/day total tonnes/day 252,000 302,278 9,951.00 FGO tonnes/day FGO tonnes/day FGO tonnes/day 36,866.00 60,276.00

Total FGO + Waste + VLGO tonnes/day (RiskPert)

FGO:Total tonnes (RiskPert)

124,000.00 Waste tonnes/day Waste tonnes/day Waste tonnes/day 191,707.00 310,210.00

WASTE:Total tonnes (RiskPert)

-

VLGO tonnes/day VLGO tonnes/day VLGO tonnes/day

6,050.00 26,000.00

VLGO:Total tonnes (RiskPert)

Figure 4 - Examples of inputs for a continuous Transform/Transfer distribution It is important to note that this example refers to Operation level value stream (LoW4). Where scenarios to be tested require detail of equipment and other variations of levers, this implies a Process value stream at LoW3.

Operational Planning: Building a Business Structure Performance Model Page 10 of 39