AAOM Handbook

Purpose

To specify the probability distribution for the cost forecast of the Activities of the EPS.

Quantity

For each low sample rate activity listed in the EPS; • the estimated best case cost of each occurrence,

• the estimated most likely case cost of each occurrence, • the estimated worst case cost of each occurrence, • the weighting factor to be applied to the cost distribution,

• the issues that will increase the probability of a best case outcome, • the actions that are possible to increase the probability of a best case outcome, • the issues that will increase the probability of a worst case outcome, and • the actions that are possible to decrease the probability of a worst case outcome. The best case, worst case and distribution weighting parameters be based upon the historical records for the activities, the experience of appropriate personnel and a knowledge of intended changes to the either the process or Production and Service Strategies. The control actions identified to increase the probability of a better case outcome shall be recorded in a system where the implementation of the action can be managed. Quality

Time

At each forecast update interval (typically quarterly).

Resources

Completion of this task is the accountability of the role nominated on the configured Expenditure Schedule flowchart.

© McAlear Management Consultants 2006

Operational Planning: Set Expenditure Schedule

Updated: August 2018

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