AAOM Handbook

MS.01 Forecast Trigger Parameter Accumulation

Context

Each of the Work Packages derived from the selection of Production and Service Strategies is necessary to deliver the performance targets for a process, but the target performance cannot be achieved unless all of these Work Packages are executed at the right time and in the right way. The trigger parameters defined for each work package specify how the right time for the execution of each Work Package is determined. Some of the most common trigger events are; • a specified date, • a calendar time interval (e.g. days or weeks), • an operating parameter (e.g. utilisation or operating rate), • a condition parameter (e.g. a wear, contamination level), or • completion of another Work Package (e.g. when replacement of a worn component triggers an overhaul of the replaced item). Forecasting the schedule for Production and Service Work that is triggered on an operating parameter requires a forecast of the rates at which these parameters will accumulate over time. The process of Setting Production Strategy defined the estimates of the operating parameters (utilisation/operating time and throughput rates) for each Productive Unit. From these estimates we can, where they are used directly as the scheduling trigger, derive the triggering parameter estimates for Production and Service work for the Equipment/Workplaces and components. For example, the operating hours on a truck will be derived from the forecast utilisation of the haulage process and the allocation of work to the trucks within the fleet. For condition triggered, and unpredicted, activities we can in most cases define a proxy scheduling trigger based on an operating parameter. For example material volumes may be used a proxy for wear, operating hours as a proxy for contamination and for operator damage, etc. Therefore, in order to produce the Operating Master Schedule, the values of operating parameters over time, and the consequent rate of accumulation of the related Activity trigger parameters must be forecast.

Purpose

To specify the accumulation rate(s) for Operating Parameter related Activity triggers within the Operating Master Schedule.

Quantity

One forecast for each; • Operating Rate related trigger parameter specified for an Activity in the Operating Master Schedule, and • for each time scale unit of the Operating Master Schedule.

© McAlear Management Consultants 2006

Operational Planning: Set Operating Master Schedule

Updated: August 2018

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