AAOM Handbook

PS.07 Estimate Output Distributions for Strategies

Context

The objective of a Production Strategy for a process is to deliver the required process output at the lowest practical cost.

The task assignments completed to up to this point in the process of setting the Production Strategy have identified the performance gap to be addressed, and the feasible Production Strategy options for closing the performance gap. Due to the inherent variability in the independent process output characteristics (time, rate, quality, etc.) that Production strategies act on, the interactions that occur between these characteristics, and the random nature of much of the variation, we can only estimate the probable result of any combination of Production strategy choices, in a specific time interval, by using a statistical model employing Monte Carlo simulation. In order to run such a model we need estimates of the distributions in process independent output characteristics that will result from strategy choices. The Service Strategy selected for a process will also impact on the overall performance of the process - since it will typically affect operating times through service intervals and durations, and may also affect operating rates and efficiencies through changing equipment condition. These impacts on process characteristics need to be drawn from the Set Service Strategy process when evaluating Production Strategy options.

Purpose

To specify the Capability Histogram of independent process output characteristics associated with Production Strategy options.

Quantity

• One set of Capability Histograms for each combination of Production Strategies.

Quality

Changes in process design (flowsheet, technology or technical operating points) are likely to have an impact on several process characteristics, including cycle times, production rates per cycle, efficiency/costs, and service work requirements. Estimating the potential impact of these may be complex, and hence may require either mathematical modelling, laboratory testing, or full scale process testing of the change in order to produce estimates of the change impact on the independent process output characteristics (time, rate, quality, reliability, efficiency/cost and sustainability). Changes to operating time, rate, input quality, etc., resulting from changes to service intervals/ durations, equipment speed or load, ore grade, etc. will typically be much easier to estimate.

© McAlear Management Consultants 2006

Operational Planning: Set Production Strategy

Updated: August 2018

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