AAOM Handbook

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Step 5: Calibration Accuracy of the Base-case Steps 1 to 4 in the BSP modelling ensure that the calibrated model will produce reliable forecasts of performance as represented by the process design and operating production and service strategies. This can be achieved by assessing model outputs and shape of distribution compared to the calibration period. The calibration needs to bring the model forecast output to within 5% accuracy and same side skewness or no skewness as illustrated in Figure 28 below.

Figure 28 – Illustration of model calibration

3.5 Model Outputs

@Risk allows the roleholder to select number of iterations to run. 1000 iterations take 5 to 10 minutes to run in @Risk. Careful consideration must be taken when analyzing daily and annualized model output distributions.

3.5.1 Model Outputs Daily The Model Output Daily tab consists of graphs of all ‘Transform’, ‘Transfer’ and ‘Store’ activities modelled in the Business Structure. For ‘Transform’ and ‘Transfer’ activities constrained production levels modelled per day are plotted against independent variable, x- axis. For ‘Store’ activities the end capacities modelled of the stockpile is plotted on the y-axis over the forecast period as illustrated in Figure 29 and Figure 30 respectively.

Operational Planning: Building a Business Structure Performance Model Page 25 of 39